Issues of assessing the possible negative impact of pests (weeds) when carrying out pest risk analysis

The article presents an analysis of existing approaches to assessing the potential economic significance of pests (weeds) when conducting a pest risk analysis. The insufficiency of the existing international and Russian methodological basis for conducting such an assessment is shown. The applicability and accuracy of existing assessment methods are analyzed. The greatest practical applicability of the method of drawing up a partial financial estimate (partial budgeting) using a linear regression model is shown. Based on existing methods and practices, an improved methodology is proposed that takes into account empirical data on the harmfulness of weeds for agricultural crops, and the adaptation probability (accepted as the suitability of conditions) in accordance with the mathematical model of the potential species area. This approach is based on the objective correlation between the harmfulness and abundance of weeds in the agrocenosis, which in turn is determined by the suitability of environmental conditions. An approach to the qualitative assessment of potential economic losses is proposed based on the correlation of estimated indicators of potential damage and gross domestic product in the area of pest risk analysis. The described methodology allows to significantly increase the reliability and accuracy of the assessment of the potential economic significance of dangerous weed species during pest risk analysis, complies with the requirements of legislation and methodological documents in the field of plant protection and is mathematically equivalent to the assessment methods previously used in the practice of pest risk analysis in the Russian Federation. Prospects for further improvement of methods for assessing the negative impact of pests during pest risk analysis based on more detailed models of agricultural production and economic relationships are noted.

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